Spring Fever Newsletter

Now that we are into May, Calgary is in full spring fever mode, despite our current weather not being anything spring-like! First time home buyers are abound, seeking deals before their rate holds expire, while variable rates are becoming more enticing with steeper discounts for those ready to take on the added risk.

There have been a multitude of changes over the last several weeks which have come into effect and may affect you in an upcoming purchase. To fully clarify exactly what these changes are, I'll devote this newsletter to explaining the latest changes and how they may affect you.

Higher Interest Rate Used to Qualify Clients

*These rules affect Hi-Ratio Mortgage Holders (ie: those with less than 20% down payment) Old Rules: Previously, if you signed on for a 3 year fixed rate term at 3.65%, I would have qualified you for the mortgage AT 3.65%. The only difference would have been a variable mortgage; those mortgages have always been qualified on higher rates to protect you again future rate increase and most commonly the 3 year POSTED bank rate would have been used to qualify you. New Rules: In order to eliminate a surplus of clients in the next several years who are no longer able to afford their houses as their renewal rate in 3 years is much higher, the new rule is that all clients are qualified on the "benchmark qualifying rate" unless you are signing on for a 5 year or greater fixed rate term, in which case you are qualified at that rate. For fixed rate mortgages with terms of less than 5 years as well as all variable mortgages, you are qualified based on the benchmark qualifying rate. What is the 'qualifying benchmark rate?' As of today, the rate is 6.10%. CMHC defines the benchmark rate as the Chartered Bank - Conventional Mortgage 5-year rate that is the most recent interest rate published by the Bank of Canada in the series "V121764" each Monday. Refer to the official link for the most up to date rate information. Leah's BOTTOM LINE: Based on a higher qualifying interest rate, borrowers will need approximately 25% more income in order to qualify for the same home compared to the old rules.

Rental Properties

Old Rules: Able to purchase a rental property with 5% down payment. New Rules: Requires 20% down payment for rental properties. As of April 19th, CMHC will also be implementing changes to the calculation of a borrower's Total Debt Service Ratio where rental income is generated from the subject property. 50% percent of the gross rental income from the subject property may be included into the borrower's gross annual income for the purposes of calculating the borrower's Total Debt Service Ratio. Leah's BOTTOM LINE: This is a more complex matter to explain, so I invite you to contact me directly to review your situation or alternatively, please read the CMHC link for more specific information.

	Re-financing Your Home
Old Rules: Previously able to re-finance up to 95% of the value of your home. New Rules: May only re-finance up to 90% of the value of your home. Leah's BOTTOM LINE: This will keep an additional 5% worth of equity in the home than before.

Bank of Canada warns higher rates ahead

From the Canadian Press:

The Canadian dollar rose sharply Tuesday as the Bank of Canada warned that it will be raising interest rates.

At midday, the dollar was up 1.63 cents to 100.17 cents US.

The Bank of Canada kept its key lending rate unchanged Tuesday, but warned that its low-rate policy has a limited future.

The bank held the overnight rate at 0.25 per cent, as economists had expected.

But with the economy recovering and inflation running above the bank's two per cent target, the need for rock-bottom lending rates "is now passing," it said in a statement.

The extent and timing of any change in the key rate "will depend on the outlook for economic activity and inflation," the bank said. The bank also noted growth is "proceeding somewhat more rapidly" than it expected earlier this year, increasing the chance of a rate rise in the early summer.

"Simply put, this statement marks a dramatic change in tone by the bank, and doesn't rule out possible 50 basis point moves," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with BMO Capital Markets, in a commentary.

Porter predicted a June rate hike is now "likely," adding that the central bank is clearly much more concerned about inflation than previously indicated.

The bank sets a target level for the overnight rate, which is often called the key interest rate or key policy rate because it indicates the bank's thinking about the economy.

The overnight rate is the interest rate major financial institutions charge each other for one-day loans.

The rate has been at a very low 0.25 per cent since April 2009, when it was cut from 0.50 per cent as the recession worsened. It was at a recent peak of 4.5 per cent in October 2007.

The bank's "extraordinary policy" of ultra-low rates was introduced to boost the recovery, the statement said.

The bank is forecasting growth of 3.7 per cent this year, reflecting stronger global activity, strong housing activity in Canada and the bank's conclusion that policy stimulus advanced some spending into late 2009 and early 2010.

It's forecasting that Canadian economic growth will slow to 3.1 per cent in 2011 and 1.9 per cent in 2012.

Competing pressures

Bank governor Mark Carney is juggling competing pressures: the need to control inflation with a higher rate; the need to keep the cost of loans low to encourage business and consumer borrowing; and the strong dollar.

A bank rate increase could push the dollar even higher, hurting exports and jobs. While recognizing that growth is strong, the bank warned Tuesday about economic negatives: "the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar, Canada's poor relative productivity performance and the low absolute level of U.S. demand."

Although Carney expressed concern about inflation in March, the bank said it is expecting the rate to ease slightly in the second quarter, and remain slightly above the target two per cent rate this year before easing in the second half of 2011.

With files from The Canadian Press

Overnight Interest Rate to Remain Low - For Now

Group urges BoC to keep rate promise - for now

| Friday, 16 April 2010

The Bank of Canada should keep the overnight interest rate as is in April, but aim for a target interest rate of 1.25 per cent by October and 2.50 per cent by April 2011, the C.D. Howe Institute's Monetary Policy Council recommended.

Nine of the ten members of the Council - which provides an independent assessment of the Bank of Canada's strategy to reach a two per cent inflation target - recommended the Bank keep the key interest rate at 0.25 per cent for the time being.

But for the next announcement in June, the council was split on how the central bank should proceed. Six recommended the rate still be held at 0.25 per cent, while the four remaining members were split between wanting a 0.5 per cent and 0.75 per cent target rate. The Council's formal recommendations to the Bank of Canada are based on the group's median votes on rate changes.

In a report, the Council said members who favoured the Bank stay with its commitment tended to "highlight the role of emergency stimulus and inventory swings in recent growth numbers" while noting that the disappearance of one-time factors affecting prices will cause year-over-year inflation to moderate.

In contrast, members who wanted the Bank to raise the policy rate sooner and more steadily said domestic demand and inflation are running ahead of what was expected when the Bank's commitment to keep rates low was made, adding the yield curve and money growth rates are "consistent with continued expansion."

"In general, the strongest sentiment was that credibility in controlling inflation should be the Bank of Canada's paramount consideration," the report said. "There was strong sentiment in favour of the Bank's signaling clearly that monetary policy is likely to become much less accommodative as it exits its emergency stance."

Increase of 0.6% for 5 year fixed rates

Banks start interest rate shake-up

| Tuesday, 30 March 2010

Four big banks have increased their posted rates on fixed mortgages, signaling the start of an upward move on record-low interest rates.

Royal Bank, TD Canada Trust and Laurentian all moved their posted rates on five-year fixed mortgages by 0.6 per cent yesterday, a move followed by CIBC today. Many non-banks have already followed, prompting a surge in requests from variable-rate clients to lock into fixed rates.

"The phones have been ringing off the hook since yesterday," said Donna Ramsay, a Mortgage Architects broker based in Orangeville, Ont. "We have several clients that we have committed to calling to see if they want to lock into a fixed. We tell them that we're not here to tell them what to do -- we'll give them the facts."

The interest rate increase will also mean higher qualifying criteria for new clients, who must meet the five-year posted fixed rate when the new mortgage insurance rules kick in on April 19.

CIBC economist Benjamin Tal told the Globe and Mail the rise in rates along with other factors means the booming housing market will slow down significantly after spring.

"Given where interest rates are now, I still think you'll see an extremely strong spring. However, after that I think the housing market will stagnate," Mr. Tal said. "We are in the ninth inning of this booming house market. We are not expecting a crash, but we will stagnate."

Interest Rates Set to Rise

Interest rates are set to rise today with one major bank already announcing a 0.6% increase in their 5 year fixed rates. There are also moderate increases in the 3 & 4 year fixed rates.

If you are considering purchasing in the near future, it would be wise to secure a rate hold before all of the lenders have followed suit. Generally rate holds last anywhere from 90-120 days and as long as the client takes possession of the new home within that time frame, the original, low rate hold is honored.

Relief in sight?

Consumer complaints about mortgage penalties pile up

| Tuesday, 16 March 2010

The Bank of Canada's record-low interest rates have been in place for almost a year and during that time, consumer complaints about mortgage prepayment penalties have been steadily rising.

A story in the Globe and Mail says the Ombudsman for Banking Services and Investments (OBSI) has opened 301 new consumer complaints in the quarter that ended in January, which is twice the number seen in the same quarter last year and almost triple the number seen in 2008.

Hein Moes, an Invis broker in Victoria, says lenders will not bend on interest rate differential (IRD) penalties when interest rates are so low, causing many clients to opt out of refinancing for a better rate.

"I don't know when we're going to see some release in that department," said Moes. "If you can't save your penalty before the original maturity date of the mortgage, then you really have to have a hard look at whether you want to do it or not. And even if you take the best discounted deal with the same lender, they're going to want to see compensation from that."

In the latest federal budget, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said he will standardize how prepayment penalties are calculated and disclosed to consumers, but details have not yet been revealed.

Douglas Melville, the head of the OBSI, told the Globe in most cases the lender's disclosure is clear, but there are some instances when the customer's argument has legs.

"At the moment, we have about a dozen case files still open where some form of compensation is likely to result," Melville said. "We believe compensation is warranted due to a lack of clear disclosure by the firm of the prepayment penalty calculation."

Bank Maintains Overnight Rate

Bank Maintains Overnight Rate - March 2, 2010

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Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010

OTTAWA - The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is unchanged at 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.

The ongoing global economic recovery is being driven largely by strong domestic demand growth in many emerging-market economies and supported in advanced economies by exceptional monetary and fiscal stimulus, as well as extraordinary measures taken to support financial systems.

The level of economic activity in Canada has been slightly higher than the Bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The economy grew at an annual rate of 5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2009, spurred by vigorous domestic spending and further recovery in exports. The underlying factors supporting Canada's recovery are largely unchanged - policy stimulus, increased confidence, improved financial conditions, global growth, and higher terms of trade. At the same time, the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar and the low absolute level of U.S. demand continue to act as significant drags on economic activity in Canada.

Core inflation has been slightly firmer than projected, the result of both transitory factors and the higher level of economic activity. The outlook for inflation should continue to reflect the combined influences of stronger domestic demand, slowing wage growth, and overall excess supply.

Conditional on the current outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target.

The risks to the outlook for inflation continue to be those outlined in the January MPR. On the upside, the main risks are stronger-than-projected global and domestic demand. On the downside, the main risks are a more protracted global recovery and persistent strength of the Canadian dollar. The Bank judges that the main macroeconomic risks to the inflation projection are roughly balanced.

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 20 April 2010.